Nikitas3.com believes that Republicans, and especially conservative Republicans, are poised to win significant victories in US Senate elections in 2018, giving the GOP a 60-seat ‘super’ majority or more, and virtually unlimited power.
With a Republican president and Republican House, this will allow president
Trump to genuinely re-make America in a more conservative mold, to finally get rid of Obamacare, seal the border, limit immigration, cut taxes, reduce regulations and create tens of millions of good new jobs.
And don’t believe this nonsense that it is dangerous to be a Republican under Trump. All of these anti-Trump polls are media fabrications, just as the media got the 2016 election totally wrong.
Normally mid-term elections favor the party that does not hold the White House, but the 2018 mid-term elections are going to be different, say most political pundits including Nikitas3.com, who predicted Trump’s victory as far back as 2011.
Republicans currently hold 52 US Senate seats. They could get to 53 seats if conservative Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia switches parties. He may do so in order to guarantee his seat rather than risk losing in an election in a state that went for president Trump by an astounding 42 points. West Virginia in 2016 elected a conservative Democrat governor, but he just switched parties himself.
If Manchin stays put, Republican West Virginia attorney general Patrick Morrisey could challenge him on the conservative side, as could Republican US House members David McKinley, Alex Mooney or Evan Jenkins. Manchin is a former West Virginia governor and is pretty popular in the state. But the political tenor of the times may finally work against him.
The current US Senate Republican vote count could even go to 54 if Democrat Robert Menendez of New Jersey is convicted of corruption in his current trial, and is expelled from the Senate. He could be replaced by a Republican appointed by New Jersey’s Republican governor Chris Christie (who could appoint himself). That seat then is up for election in 2018.
In 2018 there will be 25 non-Republicans (23 Democrats and two Independents who vote Democrat) up for re-election in the US Senate, compared to only 8 Republicans. This alone is a mathematical disaster for Democrats. Worse there are 10 Democrat senators running for re-election in states that Trump won, meaning that these seats will trend strongly Republican.
If all 8 Republicans hold their seats, then this situation gives Republicans and conservatives an opportunity to reach as many as 63 or 64 US Senate seats under the best-case scenario.
Here is a summary of the 10 US Senate races to watch in states that Trump won.
*West Virginia: Discussed above.
*Michigan: Incumbent Democrat senator Debbie Stabenow has been in office since 2000. She is a colorless old Democrat hack and is going to face strong challenges from several candidates who are in line with the Trump agenda of bringing back the white working-class in Michigan which has suffered greatly after the unions drove the auto industry out. This election is discussed in depth in this essay.
*Florida: Democrats were speechless when president Trump won the electoral votes in Florida in 2016. Now Florida Democrat US senator Bill Nelson is up for re-election in 2018. He first was elected in 2000. Nelson is a former astronaut and he has good approval ratings in the Sunshine State. But Nelson is 74 years old now, and so his age may work against him.
His most significant challenger is likely to be two-term Republican governor Rick Scott, a Trump ally, who is 64 years old now and who cannot run for a third term. Scott is popular and he could well unseat Nelson but probably in a fairly close race.
Scott may plan to go into the Senate for one term and then run for US president in 2024. He certainly has his eyes on the White House, particularly coming from a major state like Florida. He has a good reputation for getting things done.
Other possible Republican challengers to Nelson include Republican US House members David Jolly or Ron DeSantis. Wealthy and famous non-politician Florida residents – of which there are many – may run too, based on the “Trump model”.
Prediction: Scott will defeat Nelson, whose age will work against him.
*Indiana: This seat is surely going Republican. Democrat US senator Joe Donnelly was first elected in 2012 on a fluke after the powerful and long-serving Republican US senator Richard Lugar lost in a shocking upset in a primary battle. That also was the year that Obama won a second term, but the political tables have turned significantly since then.
President Trump won Indiana by a whopping 19 points. Vice president Mike Pence is a former Indiana governor. Potential Republican candidates include US House members Luke Messer, Susan Brooks, or Marlin Stutzman.
*Missouri: President Trump won Missouri also by 19 points and so incumbent Democrat US senator Claire McCaskill is definitely threatened in 2018. She was first elected in 2006, which was a bad year for Republicans. She won re-election in 2012 when the Republican candidate blundered. But 2018 is likely to be a bad year for Democrats like McCaskill in solid “red” states like Missouri.
One potential challenger to McCaskill is retired NASCAR driver Carl Edwards, who is young (38), handsome and very famous in Missouri, where he was born in Columbia. If he runs Nikitas3.com predicts that he will win. Another potential challenger to McCaskill is conservative activist Austin Petersen.
Missouri elected a solid Republican governor in 2016, conservative ex-Navy SEAL Eric Greitens so it is a conservative state. Only St. Louis voters help to elect Democrats.
There are six Missouri congresspeople who also may challenge McCaskill. Nikitas3.com predicts that McCaskill will lose one way or another. She has been involved in questionable financial and political dealings that will come back to haunt her now that the campaign is tougher than it was previously. She also is far too liberal for Missouri in these times.
*Montana: Democrat US senator Jon Tester was first elected in 2006, which was a good year for Democrats since the Iraq war had turned very unpopular. Tester is a fake “Montana rancher” who has a music degree from the University of Great Falls (Montana) and is really a liberal hack. He won two very close elections. Nikitas3.com predicts that Tester’s seat will go Republican in 2018 in a state that Trump won by 21 points.
Tester’s most potent challenger would be one-term Republican Montana congressman Ryan Zinke, who is now secretary of the interior under president Trump. Tester could even possibly face Greg Gianforte, Montana’s lone congressman elected in Spring 2017 even after assaulting a reporter (or because he assaulted a reporter).
Nikitas3.com believes that Tester might also be challenged by a conservative Montana businessman based on the ‘Trump model’.
*North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp is the current Democrat US senator from North Dakota, a “ruby red” Trump state. She rode Obama’s coattails into the Senate in the 2012 election. President Trump tried to lure her out of office by dangling the post of US agriculture secretary before her, but she did not bite.
Trump won North Dakota by 36 points, and Republican US senator John Hoeven won reelection in 2016 with 78% of the vote(!) Republican governor and software mogul Doug Burgum won in 2016 with 76%(!)
North Dakota US representative Kevin Cramer, the state’s only congressman, may challenge Heitkamp.
Whichever Republican runs Nikitas3.com believes that Heitkamp is a goner, that the world has shifted dramatically since 2012 when she won election by just 3,000 votes out of 319,000 cast.
Those 3,000 votes easily could be attributed to routine Democrat fraud, just as we saw more than 5,000 suspicious votes in New Hampshire in 2016 based just on one type of fraud – same-day voter registration.
*Ohio: Sherrod Brown is Ohio’s left-wing Democrat US senator first elected in 2006. Since then Ohio has trended strongly Republican. Brown won re-election in 2012 by 6 points.
Trump won Ohio by 8 points in 2016 and Republican US senator Rob Portman won re-election in 2016 by 21 points over his Democrat challenger, former governor Ted Strickland, who left Ohio in bad shape.
Brown could face a term-limited Republican governor John Kasich, although Kasich may switch parties or challenge Trump in a primary in 2020 since Kasich hates Trump. Ohio state treasurer Josh Mandel could seek a rematch against Brown from 2012. Whatever happens, Nikitas3.com predicts that Brown will lose. He is too far left for an increasingly conservative state.
*Pennsylvania: This was a Democrat presidential electoral state since 1988. But in 2016 it went for Trump after decades of hard economic times. Now Democrat US senator Bob Casey is up for re-election in 2018. The Caseys have been in Pennsylvania politics since 1963.
Like most states, Pennsylvania is liberal in the cities and conservative in the small towns and rural areas that elected president Trump. Those Trump areas are sometimes referred to as PennsylTucky. Pennsylvania is also described as “Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west, and Alabama in between.”
Casey has won significantly twice by 18 points and 9 points by being somewhat moderate. But he has shifted to the left with the Democrat party while his state has become more conservative.
GOP US senator Pat Toomey won re-election by 2 points in 2016 after he was expected to lose. So Pennsylvania is not as liberal as it used to be.
The most likely Casey challenger to date is Republican US congressman Lou Barletta, a strong border-control advocate and former mayor of Hazleton, where he built a reputation as a tough guy opposed to illegal immigration. This would sell well in PennsylTucky.
Others political officeholders may challenge Casey but are waiting to see what left-wing Pennsylvania governor Tom Wolf does. He has become unpopular and so he may not run for re-election after one term.
Nikitas3.com predicts that Casey, who is a bland character, will lose to Barletta.
*Wisconsin: Left-wing lesbian Democrat US senator Tammy Baldwin was first elected in 2012 when Obama was re-elected and Wisconsin gave its electoral votes to Obama. Since then Wisconsin has shifted strongly to the right. Trump won Wisconsin in 2016.
Tough-guy reform-minded Republican governor Scott Walker first won election in 2010, won a special recall election in 2012 and re-election in 2014 after imposing strong measures that helped the state’s economy significantly. He could certainly beat Baldwin in 2018, but he may run for a third term as governor. After all, Wisconsin is a nice place and Walker probably likes it there just fine, particularly being as popular as he is.
Walker probably has his eyes on the White House in 2024 rather than on the US Senate. But hey, you never know. He ran for president in 2016, but dropped out early.
Wisconsin lieutenant governor Rebecca Kleefisch also could challenge Baldwin. US congressman Sean Duffy is another possible contender. Or perhaps a Wisconsin businessman.
Whomever the challenger is, Nikitas3.com predicts that the seat will go Republican, particularly after president Trump and governor Walker together lured 13,000 new high-paying jobs into Wisconsin from the international electronics giant Foxconn. This comes as Wisconsinites still remember a disastrous 8 years (2003-2011) under a corrupt Democrat governor named Jim Doyle when the state economy almost collapsed.
*This list does not even include states that Hillary Clinton won in which US Senate seats could possibly flip from Democrat to Republican like Massachusetts as discussed in this Nikitas3.com commentary.
*One Republican seat that could be threatened is that of liberal Republican US senator Susan Collins of Maine who may run for governor of that state rather than for re-election to the Senate. If she leaves the Senate, that opens up the possibility of a more conservative Republican taking her place, and less obstruction for the Trump agenda. It also could lead to a loss of that “safe” seat to the Democrats since Maine is somewhat liberal.
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