Nikitas3.com believes that Republican Speaker of the House Paul Ryan of Wisconsin could lose his congressional seat in the 2018 mid-term elections.
As speaker Ryan is the leader of the House of Representatives; the leader of the Republican House majority party; and also is legally the next person in line to be president should anything happen to both president Trump and vice president Pence. Ryan was the Republican vice presidential candidate in 2012 alongside Mitt Romney.
Nikitas3.com believes that Ryan, who was first elected in 1998, could be defeated by:
*a conservative challenger in the Republican primary; or
*a conservative third-party challenger in the general election who could win the seat outright by drawing more votes than either Ryan or the Democrat candidate; or
*a conservative third-party candidate in the general election who could draw enough votes away from Ryan to give the election to the Democrat; or
*a strong Democrat challenger in the general election, although that is highly unlikely. Ryan won his last election by 30 points.
There are two significant precedents for Ryan losing in a “Republican voter revolt”:
A) In a surprise election upset that deposed another major Republican figure, House majority leader Eric Cantor was voted out in a primary election in Virginia in June 2014. He lost to a little-known conservative college professor named Dave Brat who now represents the district.
B) In 2012 Republican US senator Richard Lugar of Indiana, who had served in the Senate for 36 years(!), lost a primary race to state treasurer Richard Mourdock, who then lost the general election.
Ryan faced challenger Paul Nehlen in a Republican primary in 2016 but won with a whopping 84% of the vote. He then won the general election with 65% of the vote.
But things have changed since then. While conservatives were angry with Ryan in 2016, they and many other Republicans are now furious with elected Republicans like Ryan for thwarting president Trump’s reform agenda.
Nehlen is going to run again in the primary, but Nikitas3.com believes that he should run as a third-party candidate in the general election. He could win this time, or at the very least contribute to Ryan’s defeat.
Either way would be a win for conservatism and a deafening shot over the bow of the Washington Swamp Machine. It would scare the daylights out of many anti-Trump Republicans.
Ryan is truly a DC Swamp Dweller who lives like a king while ‘the people’ suffer. If Nikitas3.com lived in Ryan’s district I would vote for the conservative challenger or even for the Democrat candidate – my first such vote ever – just to get rid of Ryan.
While some might think that Ryan’s career would be over if he lost, that is false. He would probably become a multi-millionaire lobbyist or take another high-paying position in the Washington Swamp. His political fame assures his future. Once a Swamper, always a Swamper. Ryan is currently 47 years old.
Eric Cantor, for instance, immediately took a job with an investment bank after his defeat. Richard Lugar has stayed in Washington and established his own political think tank.
The House currently has 240 Republican members, 194 Democrats and one seat vacant in a Republican district.
This means that Republicans have majority control by 46 votes, and probably 47, if everyone votes along party lines. To take back majority control and install a Democrat speaker Democrats would have to defeat 24 sitting House Republicans in the 2018 elections while losing no seats.
Political prognosticators consider this highly unlikely although many Republican and conservative voters are angry and could help overthrow many liberal Republicans by not going out to vote for them or even voting Democrat.
We often think of being a congressman or congresswoman as glamorous but it is very hard work with repeated trips to Washington, DC every year; ongoing demands from constituents; requirements to raise money and to make public appearances; living in the spotlight; and putting up with relentless criticism and harassment, particularly if you are a conservative.
In New York state’s 19th congressional district southeast of Albany conservative ex-military guy Chris Gibson won a US House seat in 2010 and said that he would only serve three terms. He kept his word and retired in 2016 even though he was very popular and could have won re-election indefinitely.
He said that he wants to spend more time with his family. Gibson is now a college professor and he may re-enter politics in the future. He even has been discussed as a possible gubernatorial candidate.
On average 22 House members retire each election cycle without seeking any other office, according to political analysts.
Below is a list of 10 Republican members of the US House of Representatives who have announced so far that they will not seek re-election in 2018. A few more are sure to come.
Most of these ten seats are pretty safe for a Republican/conservative replacement to be elected. The House generally has a re-election rate well over 90%, and as much as 96% and even more except in big changeover years like 1994 or 2010.
There is one significant Democrat 2018 retirement thus far and that is Representative Carol Shea-Porter of New Hampshire. This is noteworthy since that seat could flip to Republican. The seat was held by Republican Frank Guinta before Shea-Porter.
A leading Republican candidate for that seat is black conservative Eddie Edwards, who had entered the race before Shea-Porter dropped out.
Edwards is the former chief of police for the town of South Hampton, NH. He served as Chief of the New Hampshire State Division of Liquor Enforcement.
Edwards is a US Navy veteran and graduate of the FBI National Academy in Quantico, Va.
Here are the Republican congressional retirees to date:
*Dave Trott of Michigan. His district is Republican-leaning but it is just west of liberal Detroit and could possibly flip to Democrat under the right circumstances.
*Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, who has served seven terms. He is a moderate anti-Trump Republican who voted against the repeal of Obamacare. His district is in eastern Pennsylvania and is surrounded by Democrat strongholds like Philadelphia, Harrisburg and Allentown. This certainly has created a liberal influence in his district and could contribute to a Democrat winning the seat.
Dent says that he is disturbed at the political polarization in the country. His Obamacare vote certainly played a big role in his decision not to seek re-election.
*Seven-term congressman Dave Reichert of Washington state. Hillary Clinton won handily in some parts of Reichert’s district which is largely rural and conservative but also includes some far-south suburbs of liberal Seattle, and thus Reichert may have foreseen problems for his re-election in these partisan times.
*Tim Murphy of Pennsylvania resigned recently in a sex scandal. His district is in the southwestern corner of Pennsylvania. His seat is likely to remain Republican.
*Jimmy Duncan Jr. of Tennessee announced that he would not seek re-election to the House in 2018 in order to spend more time with his family. Duncan’s sister, Tennessee state senator Becky Duncan Massey, may run for the seat.
*Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida will not seek re-election in 2018. She is 65, was born in Cuba and has been a congresswoman since 1989. She is a well-known and liked figure in Republican circles who has been a Trump critic.
Ros-Lehtinen’s departure is good news for president Trump. If Republicans maintain the House in 2018 but with more conservative members, and if the GOP makes big expected gains in the US Senate, president Trump will be able to get his agenda passed in 2019 and 2020.
*Lynn Jenkins of Kansas will not seek re-election to the House in 2018. Jenkins, 54, said that she wants to return to the private sector although she might run for Kansas governor.
*86-year-old Sam Johnson of Texas will not seek re-election in 2018. “For me, the Lord has made clear that the season of my life in Congress is coming to an end,” Johnson said. Wonderful. God bless congressman Johnson. He is an Air Force veteran who was held at the notorious ‘Hanoi Hilton’ prison camp during the Vietnam War.
*Kristi Noem was first elected to Congress from South Dakota in 2010. Instead of seeking re-election in 2018 she will run for governor.
Noem comes from a farm family. Her father died in a farming accident in 1993 and so she helped to run the family farm after that. Her seat is virtually certain to remain Republican in this conservative state.
Noem is famous for getting more than 20 speeding tickets. She has apologized for her bad driving, although high speeds are often normal just to get around in the wide-open spaces of South Dakota.
*Raul Labrador is a conservative hispanic congressman from Idaho. He has announced that he will run for governor of Idaho in 2018. Labrador, 49, is a founding member of the House Freedom Caucus, a conservative group. His House seat is virtually certain to remain Republican. Idaho is a very conservative state. He is very likely to be elected governor.
*Steve Pearce, 70, will run for governor of New Mexico instead of for re-election to the House in 2018. His district includes more than the entire southern half of New Mexico and is largely rural and conservative but has a small population for its size. Pearce’s seat will probably remain Republican.
The current Republican governor, Susana Martinez, is term-limited out in 2018. As governor Pearce wants to address the exodus of young people from New Mexico over the last decade.
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