We have the January job numbers. CNBC.com reports:
Nonfarm payrolls grew by 200,000 in January and the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent, while wages saw their biggest jump since the end of the Great Recession, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a closely watched report Friday.
Economists surveyed by Reuters had been expecting jobs growth of 180,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent.
This is a pretty good jobs number. But there is more that is important besides the raw numbers. CNBC reports:
In addition to the solid payroll growth, average hourly earnings were up 0.3 percent for the month, matching estimates and reflecting an annualized gain of 2.9 percent. That was the best since mid-2009 …
Perhaps the most important numbers in the January BLS report is this from CNBC:
Construction reported by the biggest gain by sector with 36,000. … Manufacturing also showed a gain of 15,000 and durable goods-related industries added 18,000.
“Perhaps the biggest positive surprise on hiring is the continued surge for the goods-producing sector with manufacturing and construction leading the way,” said Mark Hamrick, Bankrate.com’s senior economic analyst.
Great. This comes on top of all of the other positive news, like the roaring stock market and Apple planning to invest $350 billion in the US economy.
Nikitas3.com estimates that by 2019 that the economy will be producing as many as 250,000 jobs per month or even more, and thus that the total number of jobs created by the time Trump leaves office in January 2025 could be 24 million or more, which would be 12 million more jobs than Hillary Clinton would have created in eight years under static Obama policies.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is even predicting first quarter 2018 growth at 5.4%. Wow!
These numbers, along with many other indicators of a rising economy and increasing confidence in Trump, favor the president after a year in which Democrats did everything possible to bring him down.
For instance the president’s recent State of the Union address on January 30 was much anticipated due to the major reforms that he has made in his first year in office. It was the most-watched SOTU since 2010.
That speech was a home run; even his critics agree. Fox News reported this about a highly respected pollster named Frank Luntz who, like millions of other people, has been skeptical of Trump:
Conservative pollster Frank Luntz reconciled his 2015 public row with Donald Trump, saying Tuesday that he now owes the president an apology after his State of the Union address.
“Tonight, I owe Donald Trump an apology. Tonight, I was moved and inspired. Tonight, I have hope and faith in America again. It may go away tomorrow. But tonight, America is great again,” Luntz wrote in a series of tweets.
“Even in foreign policy and national security this speech (is) a perfect blend of strength and empathy. These heroic stories break our hearts, but sturdy our resolve. This is the Trump his voters wanted him to be,” Luntz continued.
The pollster’s praise for Trump did not stop there. He added that Trump’s SOTU address “represents the presidential performance that Trump observers have been waiting for — brilliant mix of numbers and stories, humility and aggressiveness, traditional conservatism and political populism.”
“Only one word qualifies: Wow,” Luntz wrote, admitting in another tweet that he has “criticized the President’s language a lot in recent months.
Luntz famously got into the public spat with then-candidate Trump in 2015 after he ran a focus group following the first Republican presidential debate that torched Trump’s prospects of becoming the Republican nominee for president.
The speech got sky-high marks, in general around 75% to 80% approval. Even 43% of Democrats liked it.
This is going to give the president and Republicans big political momentum as 2018 unfolds, with mid-term elections coming up in November. Nikitas3.com predicts that Republicans will hold majority control of the US House of Representatives and make major gains in the US Senate in November, up to 60 Senate seats or more, which is a ‘magic number’ that would give Republicans almost unlimited power.
This speech shows that president Trump can indeed be very “presidential”. And when he does so, Americans like it. He must now build on his gains from his successful first year, the growing economy and from his State of the Union address. He also can be heartened that the Democrats are in such disarray, for instance that their fundraising has fallen through the floor. Look at this from a website called The Week:
The Democratic National Committee had a rough 2017, plagued by leadership troubles, internal squabbling and unflattering reports. To top it off, the party ended the year “dead broke,” says The Intercept’s Ryan Grim.
The Democratic Party is carrying more than $6 million in debt, according to year-end filings — and has just $6.5 million in the bank. Do the math, and the party is working with just over $400,000 overall. Meanwhile, the Republicans are swimming in pools of money. The Republican National Committee had raised $132 million by the end of 2017 — about twice as much as the DNC — and entered 2018 with almost $40 million to spare, with not a penny of debt.
Now look at this from Breitbart News about the 2018 elections coming up in November based on a poll conducted even before the successful State of the Union address:
A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday shows Democrats with only a “negligible edge” over Republicans for November’s Congressional elections.
The poll, conducted over three days almost entirely before President Donald Trump’s well-received State of the Union Address, shows 47 percent of respondents saying they would vote for a generic congressional Democrat compared to 45 percent for a generic Republican, well within the poll’s 3.5 percent margin of error. This figure is a massive shift from earlier polls showing double digit Democratic leads and fueling pundits’ talk of a “blue wave” that could sweep Republicans from power.
The same polling agency, the Monmouth University Polling Institute (MUPI), found a 15 point generic Democratic advantage using the same question only last month.
Patrick Murray, MUPI’s director, gave some context, noting generic polls’ volatility, but he confirmed that the figures, coupled with the same poll’s finding of growing support for the tax cut the GOP passed with no Democratic support, spells trouble for proponents of the “blue wave” theory.
“The generic Congressional ballot is prone to bouncing around for a bit until the campaign really gets underway later this year. But Democrats who counted on riding public hostility toward the tax bill to retake the House may have to rethink that strategy,” he said.
The poll also showed a dramatic increase, from 24 to 37 percent, of respondents who think America is heading in the “right direction,” in the last month. Approval of President Trump’s job performance also improved, matching Monmouth’s estimate from last August at 42 percent, while respondents who thought Trump needed to be impeached or compelled to leave office dropped three percent from July 2017 to 38 percent.
Democratic overperformance in special elections, the loss of promising candidates, and a wave of retirements among congressional Republicans in the last few months has played into a narrative of a growing Democratic wave election come November. Wednesday’s Monmouth poll, however, follows a series of dramatically narrowing numbers for 2018 over the last two weeks. It is the clearest indication yet that the “blue wave” is not a foregone conclusion.
This is not two different polls giving two different results. This is the same poll showing a huge spike for Trump and Republicans just over the last month. This is very significant and it backs up the Nikitas3.com prediction that Republicans will do very well in the 2018 elections.
One significant factor is that millions of conservatives are going to turn out and vote Republican in 2018 while they stayed home in 2016 because they did not think that Trump was conservative. This increased conservative turnout will help Republicans nationwide.
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