After president Trump’s election liberal media pundits predicted a “blue wave” of Democrat victories for the mid-term November 2018 elections.
Their theory was that America really hates Trump, that his election was a fluke and that Democrats would therefore win all over the spectrum from local to state to federal races as voters recognized their error of 2016.
Not so fast. While polls showed Democrats with a huge advantage just a few months ago those polls have collapsed. In one new poll Republicans even have the advantage.
Does this sound familiar? Do you remember virtually every election ‘expert’ predicting that Hillary was going to clobber Trump?
No matter how much spin the media create against Trump and for Democrats, and how much money Democrats spend Nikitas3.com has been predicting solidly for months now that Republicans will do great this November, just as Nikitas3.com predicted in this column on January 18, 2011 (yes, 2011…) that Trump would be elected president.
This situation must be very depressing for the Democrats and it gets worse:
*The economy is thriving under Trump policies. This is the most important issue to most voters. This alone will guarantee solid Republican performance in the coming elections and for Trump’s re-election in 2020. Republican candidates will be urged to run on ‘keeping the economic recovery going’ and to “not change horses in the middle of the stream”. These will be very effective campaign slogans after the terrible economy under Obama.
*President Trump’s approval ratings are a solid 50% in the most accurate poll of all, the Rasmussen poll, after a full-on, day-by-day media assault on Trump. Nikitas3.com believes that this number will rise as the election nears and as more voters firm up their opinions.
*There have been six “special” elections to fill vacant Republican US House seats since president Trump was elected. The media acted like Democrats would win them all since Americans allegedly hate Trump, but Republicans won five of them, and a conservative Democrat won the sixth only because he expressed support for president Trump.
These facts certainly do not sound like mass dissatisfaction with Trump. Meanwhile the frenzied media/Democrat tirades against Trump have worn very thin.
Fox News recently ran a column by former Republican House speaker Newt Gingrich about the upcoming elections and the Democrat “blue wave” that is not going to happen. The article is excerpted here, with a Nikitas3.com comment after each excerpt:
Gingrich writes: Over the past few days, four building blocks have fallen into place that strengthen the case for a red wave of Republican victories in the November midterm elections, wiping out Democratic hopes for a blue wave.
Three of these building blocks are Republican-favoring political developments in what would normally be considered safe, blue states.
First, New Jersey’s U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez is a Democrat who has been deeply weakened by charges of corruption. He was tried in a long, highly-publicized trial that ended in mistrial. The government decided not to prosecute again, but the news reports about the case had already shed light on some of Menendez’s actions, which were pretty indefensible.
Then the Senate Ethics Committee admonished Menendez in April for serious corruption allegations. The result is that on Tuesday, a relatively unknown Democrat – who did not raise enough money to meet the $5,000 threshold for reporting campaign funds – earned 37.84 percent in the Democratic primary as a protest against Menendez.
Bob Hugin, a former pharmaceutical executive, is the Republican nominee and will run a well-funded campaign. At a minimum, this puts New Jersey in play for Republicans and will draw millions of Democratic dollars away from other races to defend Menendez. At a maximum, the Democrats will lose the seat.
Nikitas3.com comment: In the coming November election a total of 26 Democrats in the US Senate are up for re-election and only 8 Republicans are, including 10 Democrats in states that Trump won. This alone gives Republicans a huge advantage. A Democrat like Menendez would normally have been a shoo-in for re-election in liberal New Jersey, but he now may lose. If Hugin wins it will be a major blow for Democrats.
Meanwhile Democrats must take 23 seats away from Republicans in the US House to take majority control, while not losing any seats. This is highly unlikely to happen.
Now here are two more Gingrich observations based on the political fact that a strong gubernatorial candidate in any state helps candidates of the same party elsewhere on the ticket (state house and senate seats, congressional seats, attorney general, mayors, etc.)
Gingrich writes: …the California primary put Republican John Cox in the general election for governor running against Democratic Lt. Gov. (and former mayor of San Francisco) Gavin Newsom.
The difference in statewide Republican turnout with a GOP candidate on the ballot for governor has been estimated at 23 percent. This turnout will make the governor’s race competitive and could be the difference between winning and losing a number of (US) House seats.
In addition to the disaster of a massive gasoline tax increase and California’s sanctuary policies that protect MS-13 gang members, Newsom’s promise to raise both income and property taxes and his proposal to have government take over all health care combine to make California Democrats more vulnerable than they have been in a quarter century.
Nikitas3.com comment: Nikitas3.com believes that Cox can win the governor’s race in California running against the loony policies of the Democrats. There is more and more buzz about Cox and it is growing.
Independents are a huge and decisive voting bloc in California and they are increasingly fed up with Democrat taxes, illegal immigration, sanctuary city policies, MS-13, mass homelessness, the highest poverty rate in the US, etc. which all have become more extreme in the past few years under far-left governor Jerry Brown.
Voters also have seen the disaster of the pie-in-the-sky high-speed LA-San Francisco passenger train project that is now almost certainly going to be cancelled after it has turned out to be a massive fiscal boondoggle.
Nikitas3.com believes that Cox may have a tough time winning because he is a RINO-type Republican who has been soft on some of the issues. But if he gets aggressive and hits the Democrats hard like Trump does then he will win.
Gingrich writes about Minnesota: This combination of personality-driven bitterness and ideological extremism has suddenly made Minnesota Democrats vulnerable. Long-time Minnesota analyst Barry Casselman has written shrewdly that former Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty is now likely to be the next governor and that two Democratic House seats are now likely to go Republican (making the possibility of a Democratic (US) House this fall more unlikely).
Casselman has also written that if the chaos continues and the Democratic Party becomes both more radical and more splintered, even U.S. Sen. Tina Smith – who was appointed to replace Al Franken – could suddenly be in trouble.
All of this chaos will help Republicans and drain even more Democratic resources into a state they thought would be easy to keep.
Nikitas3.com comment: Minnesota is pretty liberal but it still has a strong Republican party. Pawlenty is very popular (serving previously as governor from 2003 to 2011) and will probably win. The current Democrat governor is a depressed alcoholic named Mark Dayton who comes from one of the wealthiest families in Minnesota history. Dayton famously fainted in January 2017 while giving his state-of-the-state address.
Tina Smith was appointed to replace Al Franken when he quit the Senate after the groping charges came out in Autumn 2017. Franken was popular and probably would have been guaranteed re-election for at least another term, so this is a possible pickup for Republicans that was not even anticipated before the groping charges.
Franken was not even up for re-election until 2020, but November 2018 will be a “special” election for Smith to give voters a chance to confirm her appointment. Nikitas3.com predicts that this ‘safe’ Democrat seat will go Republican, that Franken tainted it after winning a notorious and suspicious first election in 2008 by a razor-thin margin and then getting caught in the groping scandal.
Nikitas3.com predicts that Republicans will get to the “magic number” of 60 US Senate seats in November, which will give the GOP and president Trump almost unlimited power to shape the agenda going forward.
Meanwhile look at this from Fox:
New York billionaire George Soros’ multimillion-dollar effort to reshape California’s criminal justice system by propping up progressive district attorney candidates backfired Tuesday, with most of his candidates suffering major defeats.
Soros, together with other wealthy liberal donors and groups, spent millions on would-be prosecutors who favor lower incarceration rates, crackdowns on police misconduct and changes in a bail system that they argue discriminates against the poor.
But most of the money went to waste as their candidates lost to more traditional law-and-order prosecutors who didn’t share progressive views or have hostile attitudes toward police.
This is another sign that even far-left California is tiring of the far-left screwballs.
Now here is a final word, also from Fox, about one of the most militant and bombastic Trump-hater Democrats of all:
Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) held an event on Sunday to get millennials energized about her re-election campaign, but it was sparsely attended
The two-hour “Auntie Maxine Meet & Greet Tweet-a-thon” was billed as a chance for young people to join “top social media influencers” to support “our fearless champion in Congress” and “reclaim our time.”
“Millennials come energized & ready to get out the vote!” a flyer read.
Video and photos from the event, however, appear to show less than a dozen people there for the “Tweet-a-thon.”
The pictures from this event are comical after Democrats have told us over and over that they are the party of the millennials, that Waters is very popular among the anti-Trumpers, and that millions of young people cannot wait to get out and vote against Trump and for gun control, open borders and everything else.
Meanwhile the allegedly ‘hated’ president Trump can turn out 10,000 people with the snap of his fingers. So who is really popular?
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