There is an old adage that “a week is a lifetime in politics”, i.e., an issue can be important one week and forgotten a week later when it is replaced by another.
Just look at the hysteria over the Parkland, Florida school murders last February. You would have thought back then that gun control would be the #1 issue this November, but there is no talk about gun control being a major concern of voters today.
Whatever happened to gun-control activist David Hogg, who became famous overnight after Parkland?
He has disappeared. Nobody talks about him anymore.
How about president Trump’s meeting with Putin which created a firestorm just two weeks ago, even with charges of treason?
It is now forgotten. The news cycle is moving at the speed of light.
Nikitas3.com has been predicting all along that immigration is going to be the Big Issue in the November elections. Since it was a top issue in Trump’s election and since president Trump has solved the #1 issue of the economy, immigration is going to move up. And Democrats will pay a big price for that.
Already we are seeing Republicans and conservative political action committees making a single salient point in campaign ads – Democrats want open borders and want to weaken or abolish the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) border security agency while Republicans want strong border security.
Kaboom. Simple. One message. Case closed. Elections won.
Americans don’t want open borders. A clear majority of voters is very alarmed by illegal immigration and this is the first election in which it will be the dominant issue. Nikitas3.com predicts that Republicans are going to shock the media and Democrats with surprisingly good results, that the Silent Majority is going to go out in full force and vote for strong border control just like they voted for president Trump in 2016.
Democrats already are feeling the heat. They are stammering through interviews about immigration. One top party official on CNN would not even answer the question of whether he favored abolishing ICE. Other Democrats are running away from the issue or telling candidates to go easy.
But not all of them. Nikitas3.com has predicted that far-left Democrat US senator Elizabeth ‘Pocahontas’ Warren may well lose her seat in liberal Massachusetts over her call to “replace” ICE.
She does not say that she wants to “abolish” ICE like the more radical Democrats but to “replace” it. But we know that really means “abolish”. And Warren’s Republican opponent will be sure to highlight this duplicity.
Here is how one Democrat US senator, Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, tried to dance around the immigration issue in an interview on MSNBC. He said:
“The issue you’ve got with respect to the department of homeland security is how they’re managed by this administration, and we don’t need to be separating moms and dads from their kids in order to have strong border security. In my own view, the problem with ICE is the way the president and his team have managed ICE.”
What a phony. Notice the words “separating moms and dads from their kids” which soft-soaps the illegal immigration issue like it is something that is happening down at the Dairy Queen on a Summer evening.
Now president Trump is suggesting that he may shut down the government on September 30 – five weeks before the November 6 elections – if he does not get funding in the budget for his wall on the Mexican border.
Naturally all Republicans, including us conservatives, are supposed to recoil in horror that Republicans would be blamed yet again for another shutdown and would then lose the elections in a landslide.
But we all should recall the 2016 presidential election in which candidate Trump won by breaking every rule in the book. And that is exactly what he is doing here. He is going against all established and conventional wisdom.
Will it work? Would he really do it?
Of course. This is the iconoclast Donald Trump whom we are talking about, who breaks all the rules.
A government shutdown before the election, possibly extending through election day, will do two important things:
*It will focus voters’ minds on one issue – border security. A shutdown is intended to excite Trump’s “base” voters who elected him. They would loudly cheer a shutdown and happily go out and vote. Trump needs to get them out to the polls in November since he is not personally on the ballot. He does not want them to be complacent.
*It is a threat to Republicans to put border wall funding in the spending bill or face a shutdown. This would put the weak-willed RepubliCrats in a serious bind and is intended to finally induce them to fund the wall out of mortal fear of a shutdown.
Nikitas3.com believes that the threat will work on both fronts. It is a brilliant strategy.
Along with personal campaign appearances for many candidates this Fall president Trump is planning to maintain Republican control of the US House and increase Republican strength in the US Senate, perhaps by as many as 10 votes. And it all will hinge on the issue of immigration.
Nikitas3.com also predicts that Trump will go even further, that he actually will mock a government shutdown. But why?
To further break the rules and to make the issue more effective, that’s why. He will say something like “the government in Washington has been stealing from you for decades so it is a good thing to shut it down for a while” or he will read aloud from an endless list of government waste and fraud, thus demonstrating that shutting down the government is irrelevant in comparison to securing our nation with a border wall in a one-time action.
Trump remembers the 1986 Simpson-Mazzoli bill under president Ronald Reagan which legalized 3 million illegals and was supposed to be followed by border enforcement.
The Democrats took the illegals but never enforced the borders, as expected. Thousands of elected Republicans since then have kept the border open too. George W. Bush could have made it a big issue but he pushed for amnesty instead. After all, his Big Business friends want cheap labor.
In the end we can expect Trump to increasingly ratchet up the heat on immigration with devastating effect on the Democrats. It already has started. The mere mention of a shutdown is causing hysteria on both sides, showing how powerful the immigration issue is going to be.
And fortunately for Trump he has tens of millions of crackpot open-borders Democrats across the nation to oppose him, making illegal immigration an even bigger issue and making his job much easier.
He won’t have to make a shutdown decision until the government runs out of money on September 30 but he said last Spring when he signed a spending bill without border wall funding that “I’ll never sign a bill like this again”.
Thus he is committed. There is no turning back. Trump needs to protect his image as a can-do guy and fearless leader. Since he has threatened a shutdown he will be tagged as a phony if he does not follow through. Voters would abandon him in the crucial November elections.
That is the last thing that he wants since Democrats are proposing to impeach him if they re-take the House. But that is a big “if” and it wouldn’t work anyway. They wouldn’t have enough votes to impeach – they need two-thirds of the House to vote for impeachment.
And then remember that impeachment is just the first step. Then there would have to be a trial and conviction in the US Senate to remove Trump from office, and that is never going to happen.