Does president Donald Trump secretly want Democrats to win majority control of the US House of Representatives in the upcoming November elections?
It’s possible. Or at least he might not be overly disturbed if it happened since it could be a good thing for him when he runs for re-election in 2020.
Imagine that it is election season in September-October 2020 and Democrats control the House. Imagine that they have spent all of their time in office since January 2019 seeking to impeach the president and holding every type of hearing on every possible subject, trying to bring down Republicans. Imagine that they have gone wild in classic Maxine Waters-style hysteria and that they dominate many news cycles with their theatrics.
This would look very bad and president Trump would get the added bonus of the bumbling House speaker Nancy Pelosi as the “face” of the Democrat party. What a gift… Democrats themselves are becoming increasingly nervous about Pelosi.
Trump then could run for re-election saying the following: “Democrats have done nothing except obstruct and call for impeachment. I want to move the country forward. Here is what I want to do… A, B and C. Vote Trump in 2020 and for Republican House candidates.”
In short Trump may be willing to put off long-range agenda items until after 2020 when he hopes to get re-elected and have the House majority back in Republican hands.
In the interim he could exercise significant authority in myriad other ways like executive orders, renegotiating trade deals, through foreign policy actions and generally “setting the tone” for the nation from his ‘bully pulpit’ in the White House and on Twitter.
It is a long-term strategy but then again Trump plays for the long term as he has done so his whole life. He is certainly focusing on a second term more than just maintaining control of the House in 2018.
It is important to remember that the election of Obama in 2008 seemed awful to Republicans and conservatives at the time but that it was really a great thing in the long run. The GOP picked up 1,200 political seats nationwide from Democrats, all the way from city council up to the White House, in the eight years after Obama was elected. They did this by running against Obama and his radical agenda. This happened even though Democrats and Obama had the American mainstream Fake News media totally in their favor.
In addition Republicans could pick up as many as 10 seats in the US Senate this November which will give the president great latitude to appoint federal judges. That will be one of his most important jobs in the next two years particularly if frail 85-year-old ultra-liberal Supreme Court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg dies or is forced to retire by bad health (she has had cancer twice).
President Trump knows that Democrats are crazy people and that they ultimately will hang themselves if they get the House majority back. For decades now Democrats have been overplaying their hand. Trump Derangement Syndrome has driven them up the wall.
Trump also may not want to go into his re-election campaign with a Republican House that has failed to back him up and that has become unpopular even with Republican voters. This could suppress Republican turnout in 2020.
Thus if Democrats controlled the House then president Trump would have something to run in favor of – his agenda – and something to run against – House Democrats. That is an ideal situation for any politician; a campaign should cut both ways in order to be successful.
But won’t Democrats impeach president Trump if they get the House majority back?
It is extremely unlikely to happen. Democrats would need two-thirds of the House (291 votes) for impeachment and would never get it unless they have a massive victory in November, which is highly improbable. All the talk of a ‘blue wave’ of Democrat victories already has faded.
Consider the seven ‘special’ House elections since Trump was elected. The media and Democrats acted as if Republicans would lose every one of them but Republicans won 6 out of 7 and the seventh was won by a Democrat who talked like a Republican.
Even if they did impeach Trump or try to impeach him it would be widely viewed as a political stunt that could backfire big-time on Democrats, helping Trump to win re-election in 2020 and helping Republicans to get the House back. This all could be part of the Trump strategy.
At the same time House impeachment is only half of the process anyway. The Senate would then have to hold an impeachment trial and only with a two-thirds vote (67 votes) of the Senate acting as a ‘jury’ could they convict and remove the president from office.
That ain’t gonna happen first of all since Democrats have no evidence on which to remove the president except their hatred. And when Republicans hold the Senate majority and as many as 60 US Senate seats there would never be 67 votes to convict the president.
Even if Trump were impeached and removed from office in the most extreme scenario vice president Mike Pence would become president and liberals hate Pence almost as much as they hate Trump.