(This column is part of an ongoing series about the coming November elections.)
Republicans may pick up as many as 10 seats in the US Senate from Democrats in the November elections.
This will happen since there are 10 Democrat US senators running for re-election in states that Trump won. And those Democrats are facing off against feisty Republican opponents who are energized by president Trump and his tough tactics.
There also are three Democrats running in ‘blue states’ who could lose. Nikitas3.com has already covered those races in New Jersey, Minnesota and Massachusetts.
Naturally media polls are showing Republicans trailing in some of these 10 races, just like Trump was way behind Hillary in most polls.
We should not believe these polls. These polls are biased to start with and they always tighten up as the election nears, and sometimes they flip.
Here are 4 of the 10 Senate races that Nikitas3.com believes will flip seats from Democrat to Republican:
Pennsylvania: Barletta vs. Casey
Dave Boyer at The Washington Times reports:
Immigration hard-liner (Republican) Rep. Lou Barletta is one of President Trump’s most loyal supporters, but he is facing an uphill battle in Pennsylvania in his bid to unseat two-term Democratic Sen. Robert P. Casey, Jr.
In a state where Mr. Trump pulled off a major upset over Hillary Clinton in 2016, Mr. Barletta has been trailing Mr. Casey by double digits in polls.
OK, so there you go – the media narrative that the Republican is far behind, just like president Trump was way behind Hillary. Or polls showed Republicans losing both the House and Senate in 2016.
Republican candidate Ronald Reagan was polling far behind incumbent Democrat president Jimmy Carter in the Summer of 1980 and dismissed as a loser, but then went on to win 44 states and 90% of the electoral votes in November.
Boyer then reports several paragraphs down:
But support for Mr. Casey also appears soft in polling.
A new poll released Monday from Commonwealth Leaders Fund, a conservative group, showed Mr Casey leading Mr. Barletta by only two percentage points, 47 percent to 45 percent. It was conducted from Aug. 13-15.
So there you go, again. You sometimes have to look deeper to see the other side of the story.
Casey is a bland, colorless politician and he very well may lose when he debates and faces off against an Italian firebrand like Barletta. After all this election is going to focus largely on the national issue of immigration which is the issue that Barletta is famous for and has built his career on.
The news on August 21 that Iowa college student Mollie Tibbets was murdered by an illegal alien from Mexico is going to help strong-borders Republicans like Barletta. Nikitas3.com picks Barletta.
Jeremie White, 37, said he likes Mr. Barletta because he is “down to earth.” As for Mr. Casey, son of a well-known Pennsylvania governor, Mr. White said: “His dad made the name; he’s riding the coattails. That’s what everyone says. It doesn’t seem like he’s done that much.”
This is like Trump versus Clinton, outsider versus insider, colorful achiever versus colorless career politician. And remember that president Trump is not on the ballot. These House and Senate races often turn on the personal appeal of the candidates to their state and local constituents. Boyer writes:
In the survey, 44 percent said they believe it’s time for a new senator. That gives Mr. Barletta’s supporters hope that he can gain traction with the argument that Mr. Casey is a do-nothing lawmaker.
44%? Wow. This is the big story in this election; that is a very high number for a sitting senator. Nikitas3.com even believes that the number is higher since most polls are biased in favor of Democrats.
Barletta also is going to benefit from president Trump’s work on behalf of coal miners, and on the improved economy.
Missouri: Hawley vs. McCaskill
In Missouri Nikitas3.com predicts that one of the most corrupt Democrats in Washington today, Claire McCaskill, is going to lose her US Senate seat in the upcoming elections. This is widely expected even among liberal pundits. The Kansas City (Missouri) Star reported on July 24, 2018:
Businesses tied to U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill’s husband have been awarded more than $131 million in federal subsidies since the Missouri Democrat took office in 2007, an analysis by The Kansas City Star found.
Joseph Shepard’s personal income from his investments in those businesses has grown exponentially during his wife’s two terms in the Senate.
The federal payments don’t go directly into Shepard’s pocket. Most of the money goes toward operating costs for government-subsidized housing projects Shepard is invested in. Those companies then distribute the profits to Shepard and other investors.
his is just the latest hit on McCaskill in a long series of hits over the years. She has been dogged by allegations of corruption since she was first elected in 2006.
The Republican candidate is Missouri attorney general Josh Hawley who appears to be totally honest and above board. That is the type of contrast that wins US Senate races.
Hawley is a Yale law school graduate who as attorney general acted strongly against Republican Missouri governor Eric Greitens who was forced to resign in a scandal on June 1, 2018. Thus Hawley is seen as fair and honest in contrast to McCaskill who has been operating under a cloud for 12 years.
Hawley was elected attorney general in 2016 with 58.5% of the vote. Missouri has a long history of conservative and Republican officeholders. Rush Limbaugh comes from Missouri.
McCaskill just keeps looking bad. For instance it was reported recently that McCaskill was flying by airplane to many of the stops on her much-touted “bus tour” around the state. And while this was a minor issue it was just another black eye for McCaskill that fits into a pattern of deception.
This race is basically a referendum on McCaskill. We can expect president Trump to make at least one campaign appearance on behalf of Hawley.
West Virginia: Morrisey vs. Manchin
Sitting Democrat US senator Joe Manchin will be fighting for his political life in the mid-term elections. He was first elected in 2010 in a ‘special’ election to fill the seat of Robert Byrd who had died. Nikitas3.com predicts that Manchin will lose his seat in November.
Manchin was a popular governor in a Democrat-controlled state run by powerful miners’ unions. But West Virginia has been trending strongly Republican in the last 10 years, particularly with president Trump who has offered support for the hard-hit coal industry as Democrats and their ‘green’ friends abandon coal.
In 2012 Morrisey was the first Republican to be elected attorney general of West Virginia since 1933. He is a conservative who has worked in Washington as a lobbyist for much of his career.
As attorney general Morrisey has filed a number of lawsuits against EPA on behalf of West Virginia mining companies. EPA is very unpopular in West Virginia. He also has filed suits on behalf of the 2nd Amendment. He has an A+ rating from the NRA. These both will help him greatly in his Senate bid.
President Trump recently held a rally for Morrisey in West Virginia. He may make another appearance before the election.
Manchin is one of the last of the old-time ‘moderate’ Democrats but that will not save him. There were suggestions that he would switch parties, but he never did.
He voted to confirm conservative Supreme Court justice Neil Gorsuch and is expected to vote for Brett Kavanaugh in order to appeal to Republicans and independents. Nikitas3.com does not believe that that will be enough to save Manchin’s seat since he usually votes the Democrat party line.
He voted against the Republican tax bill and voted against the repeal of Obamacare. He also has voted against a bill to de-fund Planned Parenthood. Those are damaging votes in increasingly conservative West Virginia. Nikitas3.com picks Morrisey to win easily.
North Dakota: Cramer vs. Heitkamp
Moderate Democrat US senator Heidi Heitkamp is up for a tough re-election bid in November. She was first elected in 2012. President Trump won North Dakota by 36 points in 2016.
She will face off against Republican congressman Kevin Cramer. Nikitas3.com picks Cramer to win.
Heitkamp voted against the Republican tax bill, which looks very bad in North Dakota.
Heitkamp was one of the few Democrats to vote for Trump nominee Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court. She is expected to vote for Kavanaugh in order to appeal to conservatives and Trump voters in her state.
President Trump has strongly endorsed Cramer. The tweet from Trump read:
“Congratulations to @kevincramer on his huge win in North Dakota. We need Kevin in the Senate, and I strongly endorse him. Heidi voted NO on our Tax Cuts, and always will vote no when we need her. Kevin is strong on Crime & Borders, big on Cutting Taxes!”
Cramer was chairman of the North Dakota Republican party from 1991 to 1993. At age 30 he was the youngest person to be named state party chairman.
Cramer was first elected to the House in 2012 with 55% of the vote compared to 42% for the Democrat.
Cramer is very conservative. He opposes abortion and preferential treatment for LGBTs. He opposes Obamacare and supports president Trump’s travel ban. He opposes radical environmentalism and supports the 2nd Amendment. He called House Democratic women “weird” for dressing in white for president Trump’s 2017 first address to a joint session of Congress.
We can expect president Trump to appear personally in North Dakota for Cramer.
Meanwhile Heitkamp is doing everything she can to appear moderate, which is her only hope. On a campaign statement she says, “I say if you want someone who is going to vote with the president 100 percent of the time then I’m probably not your candidate,” Heitkamp said. “I don’t think the president is 100 percent right. I don’t think anyone’s 100 percent right. My vote belongs to you and not to a political party.”
A Valley News Live/Mason Dixon Poll in June showed Cramer with a four-point lead over Heitkamp, 48 percent to 44 percent with a four-point margin of error.