One highly-publicized December 2017 poll showed that Democrats had a 14 point lead over Republicans for the November 2018 mid-term elections. It was explained that that reflected a coming Democrat ‘blue wave’ election victory that was expected since Trump was allegedly very unpopular.
By May that number had fallen to 3 points. It rose again, but as the election approaches the polls are tightening, as they almost always do.
This happens since the “polls” that we hear most about are ‘media polls’. They are conducted by liberal media companies like NBC or CNN or The New York Times.
They are not intended to show what is happening in the electorate; they are rigged to show Democrats doing well and to give CNN, NBC and the rest of the Fake News media something positive to report about Democrats. Most voters do not know how this fraud works and so they believe the polls.
A poll can be rigged in many ways. For instance all polls explain in the fine print how the poll was conducted. And a rigged poll may say something like “53% of the respondents were Democrats and 47% were Republicans”. So that biases the poll right away.
Nikitas3.com has a way of correcting for these media polls; just add 5 to 10 points to any given poll for the Republican candidate to show how that candidate will do in the election. And in the Era of Trump you can add up to 15 points.
This poll tightening always sets off alarm bells among Democrats and media skunks. After all they are now facing reality, that the 2018 elections are starting to look like 2016 and other years when Republicans did much better than anticipated.
This poll bias goes back decades. During the Summer of 1980 Republican presidential candidate Ronald Reagan was called a joke. He was 20 points behind incumbent Democrat Jimmy Carter. As election day neared the polls tightened significantly and then in November Reagan won 91% of the electoral votes and 44 out of 50 states.
Who could forget Hillary Clinton being given a 92% chance of winning the 2016 election by the New York Times. Yet Trump won 57% of the electoral votes.
And remember that those polls predicting a Hillary landslide actually helped Trump to win by making Hillary and Democrat voters complacent at the same time that Trump was campaigning vigorously.
Fox News reported about a Texas state senate race on September 18, 2018 in a district held by Democrats for 139 years and that Hillary Clinton won by 12 points in 2016:
Republican Pete Flores defeated Democrat Pete Gallego on Tuesday night in the special election runoff for Senate District 19, a major upset in a Democratic-friendly seat with implications for the balance of power in the upper chamber.
With all precincts reporting, Flores beat Gallego by 6 percentage points in the race to replace convicted former state Sen. Carlos Uresti, D-San Antonio. Flores had 53 percent of the vote and Gallego 47 percent in unofficial returns.
Gallego conceded to Flores around 9 p.m., according to both campaigns. With the victory, Flores will become the first Hispanic Republican to serve in the Texas Senate.
This district is reported to be more than 70% black and Hispanic. And Flores did not just squeak by – he won by 6 points.
Blue wave? I don’t think so. Republicans also have won 7 out of 9 ‘special’ congressional elections since Trump was elected.
The skunks of the Fake News media know all of this. They know that they are in for some big surprises.
Meanwhile the furor among Trump voters over what is happening to judge Kavanaugh is going to spur a major turnout of GOP/Trump voters. President Trump recently said, “I was in Tennessee last night. We had a sold out arena I actually think (that Kavanaugh is) like a rallying cry for Republicans. They are so in favor of Judge Kavanaugh.”
Nikitas3.com believes that the Kavanaugh travesty is going to end up being a Reverse October Surprise. In other words an ‘October Surprise’ is a planned or unplanned “surprise” event that happens as the election nears, that is supposed to help one party.
But Nikitas3.com believes that the Democrats’ October Surprise – the political ambush of judge Kavanaugh and the testimony of Christine Ford – has backfired. Nikitas3.com predicts that it is going to energize Republicans to vote, whether Kavanaugh is confirmed or not (Nikitas3.com predicts that he will be). Fox News reports:
A new round of Fox News battleground polls shows a Republican trend in the fight for the U.S. Senate. The GOP candidates are helped by increased interest in the election among Republicans and pro-Donald Trump sentiment.
There’s been an uptick in GOP interest in all five states surveyed. Compared to early September, the number of Republicans feeling “extremely” interested in the upcoming election is up by 2 points in Arizona, up by 9 points in Indiana, up 8 points in both Missouri and North Dakota, and up 11 points in Tennessee. In each state, Republicans are now just as likely as Democrats to say they are extremely interested — erasing an edge Democrats had in several states last month.
Nikitas3.com predicts that Republicans will hold the majority in the US House and will hold 57 to 61 seats in the US Senate after the November votes are counted (they now hold 51 seats).
Here are some of the races that are being closely watched:
Perhaps the most talked-about race is the US Senate race in Texas where one-term incumbent conservative Republican Ted Cruz was supposed to have won easily.
But the national media have been calling the race tight with Cruz’s opponent, a Democrat congressman named Robert O’Rourke (he calls himself ‘Beto’ to attract the hispanic vote), raising lots of money and generating lots of excitement.
Nikitas3.com predicts that Cruz will cruise to victory. O’Rourke has some big problems:
*Texas is a conservative state. Liberals keep dreaming of ‘flipping’ Texas to liberal but it is not going to happen. And O’Rourke is very liberal, including being an open-borders liberal. O’Rourke even said in 2014 that there is no border crisis.
*O’Rourke is getting a lot of help from Hollywood. This may seem like a boost but it is going to backfire in Texas, Nikitas3.com predicts.
*Trump is going to hold a massive rally for Cruz. That will energize Cruz’s campaign big time.
*O’Rourke has been caught in a scandal where he was involved in a car accident in 1998, was very drunk and tried to run away, according to the police reports. This story is going to damage O’Rourke at the polls much more than he can imagine.
*Someone sent the Cruz campaign headquarters a packet with white powder. This is not going to sit well with Texas voters. The folks down there don’t like dirty tricks.
In Tennessee, conservative Republican congresswoman Marsha Blackburn is running for an open US Senate against former 2-term moderate Democrat governor Phil Bredesen.
Guess what Bredesen does now? He works for a solar energy company, i.e., lives off of the taxpayer. It is really a ‘hobby’ job. Bredesen doesn’t need the money. Bredesen’s net worth is estimated to be between $88.9 million and $358 million. He was once a health-care executive. WSMV TV reports on October 2:
Marsha Blackburn and Phil Bredesen are in a dead heat for Tennessee’s U.S. Senate seat according to an NBC news | SurveyMonkey Tennessee State Poll released on Tuesday morning.
The NBC News | SurveyMonkey Tennessee State Poll was conducted online from Sunday, Sept. 9 through Monday, Sept. 24. Results are among a sample of 1,867 adults aged 18 and over, including 1,609 registered voters, who live in Tennessee.
Notice that it is an NBC poll (which is biased against Blackburn to start with) and includes “adults aged 18 and over” and “1,609 registered voters”.
Well, ‘adults aged 18 and over’ are not even necessarily voters or guaranteed to vote while “registered voters” are a much less accurate way to poll than “likely voters”.
So this poll is not going to be accurate in any way. The same poll a month earlier showed Bredesen with a 2 point lead and so even in this fake poll, Blackburn is gaining.
Nikitas3.com predicts that Blackburn really has a 5 to 7 point lead. President Trump recently held a rally for Blackburn. Nikitas3.com picks Blackburn.
In Montana 2-term Democrat incumbent US senator Jon Tester is being challenged by conservative Republican state auditor Matt Rosendale.
Tester is very liberal for Montana. President Trump won Montana by 20 points in 2016 and does not like Tester since Tester led the charge to bring down the nomination of Trump’s White House doctor Ronny Jackson to be Veterans Administration secretary through a smear campaign. Trump already has made a campaign appearance for Rosendale and may make another.
Polls show the race close but Tester is considered very vulnerable. Tester would not appear likely to be re-elected in a conservative state but Montana has a history of Democrat officeholders including a popular 2-term Democrat governor and a former Democrat US senator Max Baucus, who served 36 years. Montana also had strong labor unions in its mining industry.
However, Nikitas3.com picks Rosendale.
Here are a few other quick predictions:
*In Oregon Nikitas3.com predicts that Republican challenger Knute Buehler will defeat sitting Democrat governor Kate Brown in this liberal state. The polls are generally in Brown’s favor, but Nikitas3.com believes that the people of Oregon are weary of the tactics of the left, including the radical lunatics in Portland and their pro-illegal-immigration tactics.
They also may be tired of Democrats after Brown took over from the former Democrat governor John Kitzhaber who resigned in 2015 in a scandal. The Oregon ethics commission found 10 instances when Kitzhaber used his political office for personal gain.
*In Connecticut Republican businessman Bob Stefanowski will face off against businessman Ned Lamont in the governor’s race. Nikitas3.com picks Stefanowski in this very liberal state that has suffered enormously under 8 years of a corrupt Democrat governor named Dan Malloy who is so unpopular that he is declining to run for a third term. Connecticut is very wealthy but its budget is in a shambles. This should lead to a change at the top.
*In Wisconsin one-term lesbian Democrat US senator Tammy Baldwin is being challenged by Republican state senator Leah Vukmir. Most polls show Baldwin winning by a small to medium margin. But there is only one reliable poll and that is the vote on election day.
Wisconsin has been trending Republican for the last 8 years. President Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 and also in 2016 incumbent Republican US senator Ron Johnson was expected to lose his first re-election bid. But he won a handy victory by a comfortable 3.4 points after he was trailing in the polls in October. So again, we should not believe any polls.
Nikitas3.com predicts that Vukmir will win since she is being supported by successful two-term Republican governor Scott Walker who has revitalized the state. She will probably get a Trump rally too.
Walker and president Trump worked together to bring a massive new manufacturing facility to Wisconsin operated by the global electronics giant Foxconn. It will provide 13,000 high-paying jobs. This has made them both popular in Wisconsin.
Nikitas3.com predicts that Walker will win a third term handily.
*Elise Stefanik, a two-term Republican in Upstate New York state’s rural 21st congressional district, was the youngest women ever elected to Congress in 2014. She is facing off against liberal Tedra Cobb.
There are nearly 50,000 more Republicans than Democrats in the 21st District. But many voters in the district are unaffiliated with a party — more than 94,000, and thus Cobb is holding out hope for a win.
Nikitas3.com picks Stefanik for an easy re-election. She fits well into the more conservative face of the district. She also is a political rock star for her youth and vitality. She may run for president someday. She is just 34 years old.
*Nikitas3.com believes that black conservative Republican Iraq war veteran and US Senate candidate John James will win election in November for the Michigan seat, beating three-term incumbent Democrat Debbie Stabenow.
James is a businessman and a lively and fresh new face as Stabenow is a tired old political party hack. Michigan is trending Republican after decades of Democrat/labor union power. It voted for Trump after voting for Democrats in presidential elections since 1988.
Michigan has seen major improvements in its economy under its two-term can-do Republican governor Rick Snyder. His success should rub off on James.
*Massachusetts liberal Republican governor Charlie Baker is expected to be re-elected easily to a second term. He is widely admired and liked throughout the state after an ineffective black Democrat governor named Deval Patrick did little for Massachusetts over two terms.
*In New Jersey Politico reports:
Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez is in a dead heat with Republican challenger Bob Hugin, according to a Stockton University poll released Monday, as the public’s negative view of the senator’s recent corruption trial weighs down his support.
This is a shocker. Menendez should have been a shoo-in, but Nikitas3.com already predicted that Hugin will win this race in liberal New Jersey since Menendez is known as a sleazeball. This seat would be an unexpected pickup for Republicans.
*In a Minnoesota race to fill a seat held by Democrat US senator Al Franken, who resigned in the groping scandal, Nikitas3.com believes that Minnesota Republican state senator Karin Housley will take the seat from Franken’s appointed replacement. Housley is an attractive, blond bombshell pro-Trump figure. Minnesotans remember when Franken first won the seat in 2008 in a very suspicious election. It may be time for payback.
*The Los Angeles Times reported on September 26:
Voter support for Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox rose enough over the summer to cut front-runner Democrat Gavin Newsom’s lead in half, according to a new poll by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.
Newsom, California’s two-term lieutenant governor, still remains solidly ahead in the race, but Cox managed to pick up more support from independents and a smidgen of Democrats since July, the survey showed.
Those gains for Cox were enough to cut Newsom’s lead to 12 percentage points, compared with 24 percentage points in July.
Nikitas3.com sees a trend at work here. Many Californians are fed up with the state’s drift to the hard left and its outrageous taxes and regulations. Nikitas3.com picks Cox in a Trump-like upset win.