GOP Will Hold Senate, Take Back House in November

(This commentary was originally posted on Nikitas3.com on March 30, 2020. It is still pertinent today.)

Nikitas3.com predicts that president Trump will win re-election in November and that Republicans will hold majority control of the US Senate and take back majority control of the US House.

Here is a quick summary of US Senate and House races:

Republicans currently have a 53 to 45 advantage over Democrats in the US Senate. Two other senators are Independents who always vote with the Democrats (total 100 senators).

The Fake News media are reporting that four US Senate seats held by Republicans could be won by Democrats in November in Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina and Arizona. But Nikitas3.com predicts that president Trump will win a huge victory in November and that all of those seats will remain in Republican hands.

We should recall 2014 when the Fake News media breathlessly reported that the US Senate seats of Republicans Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Pat Roberts of Kansas were threatened. Yet both won re-election easily. So the Fake News media always are anxious to make up stories about Republicans who are going to lose, like Trump was supposed to lose in a landslide in 2016.

In 2020 we are seeing a similar action. Republicans US senators in Georgia and North Carolina, which should both be “safe” re-election seats, have been targeted for defeat with reports of insider trading on their stock accounts. There is no proof that these reports are true; they appear to be part of the Democrats’ ongoing attempt to smear Republicans and steal Senate seats as they did in Alabama in 2017

In that ‘special’ election a left-wing Democrat won a US Senate seat that should have been easily won by a Republican. The seat was vacated when Republican Alabama US senator Jeff Sessions was confirmed as attorney general of the United States on February 8, 2017.

The Democrat, Doug Jones, then won the seat in a ‘special’ election in December 2017 after the Republican candidate Roy Moore was smeared in a vicious slander campaign. The allegations against Moore were never proven and are similar to the outrageous and never-proven charges made against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh.

These smear campaigns are similar to the campaigns that are waged every single day against president Trump. They are a common Democrat tactics – lie, smear, deceive and libel.

All rational observers believe that the Alabama Senate seat is going to go back to the Republican candidate who wins a primary runoff between Sessions, who wants his old Senate seat back after resigning as attorney general under withering criticism from president Trump, and Tommy Tuberville, a highly-respected former Auburn University (in Alabama) football coach.

Nikitas3.com expects Tuberville to win the runoff handily with vocal support from president Trump. Tuberville was 12 points ahead of Sessions in one poll. Nikitas3.com then expects Tuberville to win the November election easily. (Update: Tuberville won his primary easily.)

Nikitas3.com also predicts that the Senate will remain majority-controlled by Republicans after the November elections. After all, Republicans will have a 54 to 46 majority (assuming a Tuberville victory) going into November, and thus Republicans would have to lose 5 seats to give Democrats/Independents majority control with 51 seats. But Nikitas3.com does not believe that Republicans are going to lose 5 seats, no way no how.

Interestingly Republicans maintained their majority control of the US Senate with president Trump’s 2016 election even after Trump was supposed to lose and bring down the House and Senate with him.

Then in 2018, Republicans maintained majority control of the Senate even after they were expected to lose it. President Trump campaigned vigorously for Republican candidates and the GOP actually picked up two US Senate seats in 2018. On the other hand the party of Bill Clinton (Democrat), George W. Bush (Republican), and Obama (Democrat) lost a total of twenty US Senate seats combined in their first mid-term elections in 1994, 2002 and 2010.

So Trump did an amazing thing – twice. And since the Senate confirms judges and thus is more important than the House, then keeping the Senate in Republican hands since 2017 was much more crucial to the Trump agenda than the House, which has abused its majority power in the last year with the failed attempt to remove president Trump from office.

In the US House, Democrats won majority control from Republicans in the 2018 mid-term elections. This was a blow to president Trump but there were two major factors working against the GOP.

*Democrats running for the House could have been expected to do well in 2018 after the unrelenting media attacks on president Trump and following the normal political cycle in which the party that wins the White House often loses a significant number of House seats in the first mid-term election.

Democrats lost a staggering 63 seats in the first mid-term House elections in 2010 after Obama won the White House in 2008. In 1994, after Bill Clinton was elected in 1992, Republicans won 54 House seats to re-take majority control of the House for the first time in 40 years.

*Democrats won 43 US House seats in 2018 but only after a whopping 55 Republicans said that they would not seek re-election to the House leading up to the 2018 elections. This exposed many of these so-called Republicans for who they really are, i.e., fair-weather Republicans or RepubliCrats who were willing to sacrifice the Republican agenda for their own personal ends (didn’t want to support Trump, wanted to retire, etc.).

Democrats currently hold 232 seats in the House to 197 for Republicans, with one Independent and 5 vacancies. That means that Republicans must take 21 seats from Democrats in November to re-take majority control of the House with 218 votes.

And in one recent bellwether election in Kentucky, a Republican named Richard White won a Kentucky state House seat that had been held by Democrats for more than 30 years.

Thus Nikitas3.com believes that Republicans will re-take majority control of the US House when president Trump wins a big victory in November. He will “bring along” many House members with his ‘coat tails’, as the old saying goes.

Many of the Democrat seats won in 2018 are in conservative/Republican congressional districts that president Trump won in 2016, so those seats are vulnerable to Republican wins. Associated Press reported about races in California:

A pair of California Republicans were leading Democratic incumbents Wednesday in battleground congressional districts as the GOP tries to position itself to win back a string of U.S. House seats it lost (in 2018).

President Donald Trump, who wants the House back under GOP control and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi demoted, has said that with hard work, Republicans “can pick up seven seats in the state of California.”

Tuesday’s primary election set the stage for those November battles, which will play out in a state that is home to the so-called Trump resistance and where the president is widely unpopular outside his core GOP base.

Early returns showed some GOP successes in Orange County, where Republican Young Kim was the top vote-getter, setting up a rematch with Democratic U.S. Rep. Gil Cisneros. And in the 21st District, Republican David Valadao was leading incumbent Democrat TJ Cox.

In the strongly Democratic 53rd District in San Diego County, Democrat Sara Jacobs, a former State Department contractor and granddaughter of billionaire Qualcomm co-founder Irwin Jacobs, advanced to the November election. Among those seeking the second slot: San Diego City Council President Georgette Gomez, who has been endorsed by the state Democratic Party and Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Republicans hold a mere six of the state’s 53 House seats, with two vacancies. But the party wants to show it can bounce back, even in a state where Democrats control every statewide office, dominate both chambers of the Legislature and hold a 4.3-million edge in voter registrations.

Democrats have a stranglehold on California and, as expected, California is losing its younger, skilled, educated, middle class and wealthy populations, as all socialist states repel such people. So perhaps Californians are ready for a change, particularly with the horrible conditions among the homeless in Los Angeles and San Francisco along with sky-high taxes and regulations.

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