Prediction: US House will ‘Flip’ to Republican Majority

The US House of Representative currently has a Democrat majority with Nancy Pelosi as speaker. Democrats hold 232 seats, Republicans hold 197, there is one Libertarian and 5 seats are vacant. Those vacancies will be filled on November 3. believes that Republicans will win enough seats to regain majority control of the House. They need to ‘flip’ 21 seats from Democrat to Republican. This would give Republicans 218 seats (197 + 21 = 218) which is majority control. At that point, Pelosi would lose the speakership while Republican congressman Kevin McCarthy of California would be in line to become speaker.

You might think that ‘flipping’ 21 seats from Democrat to Republican is a big deal, but Democrats lost a whopping 63 seats to Republicans in the 2010 mid-term elections, two years after Obama won the White House.

Meanwhile House Democrats really ruined their image in the last two years with their sham impeachment attempt on president Trump and their failure to do anything except attack Trump. So there is much built-up anger at the Democrats for their radical actions when the nation needed work to be done; 21 seats is easily doable.

President Trump did an amazing thing when he was elected in 2016. The political pundits claimed that he would lose his bid for White House and bring down Republican control of both the US House and US Senate with him. But none of those things happened.

Republicans still have majority control of the Senate today and lost majority control of the House in 2018. But that was a result of the fact that fifty-five sitting Republican congressmen decided not to seek re-election in 2018.

These Republicans threw the House to the Democrats by dint of the fact that they quit out of animus for Trump, with some exceptions, of course, since congressmen naturally retire all the time.

The Democrat takeover also was a result of the Russia collusion hoax still influencing voters against president Trump and Republicans.

Things are looking much better in 2020 with president Trump on the ballot to bring along down-ticket races on his “coat tails”. Here are some likely ‘flips’ for Republicans to pick up seats from Democrats in 2020:

*In New York state’s 22nd Congressional district in conservative, rural Upstate New York, incumbent Republican Claudia Tenney lost a close race in 2018. She is a good choice to pick that seat back up in 2020.

Many of the Democrat pickups in 2018 were in districts that Trump won and so are considered ripe for Republican pickup in 2020, like NY-22. New York’s 19th district is another chance. The district runs north of New York City up to the Albany area. Republican Kyle Van De Water, an attorney, is running to unseat a far-left black Democrat who won the seat in 2018 in a largely white, fairly conservative, rural and small-town district. This district voted for Trump in 2016. This district voted heavily in favor of conservative Republican congressman Chris Gibson who held the seat for three terms before term-limiting himself out. picks Van De Water.

Here are a few of the other races that Republicans are likely to win:

*There are two congressional seats in the somewhat conservative state of New Hampshire, both held by Democrats. Breitbart News reported about one of them:

Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) stands accused of having an undisclosed (personal/sexual) relationship with a lobbyist for Amazon while voting in favor of at least ten pieces of legislation that the company supported.

During a debate on Wednesday evening, Republican challenger Matt Mowers accused Pappas of having a relationship with Vann Bentley, who worked as a lobbyist for Amazon in Washington, D.C., from May 2015 to November 2019.

This looks like another good ‘flip’ from Democrat to Republican. Meanwhile 31 of the Democrats who picked up House seats in 2018 did so in districts that Trump won in 2016. So with Trump on the ballot in 2020, many should be “flipped” back to Republican. Remember that the magic number is just 21 seats, which is easily doable, particularly with a strong Trump win. Here are some other good ‘flips’:

*In Oregon, there has been months of rioting in Portland. This is certainly deeply disturbing to many Oregonians who have voted Democrat for many years and even decades but who have watched the destruction of downtown Portland in horror by communist mobs like ‘antifa’ and another groups called “black lives matter”.

At the same time, there is a significant congressional race brewing. In the 4th congressional district, in the largely rural southwestern and coastal part of Oregon, the seat has been held by a leftist Democrat for decades. Unfortunately the district includes the college towns of Eugene and Corvallis, and the state capital of Salem, which have helped to assure that the seat is held by a Democrat.

But a strong Republican challenger has emerged this year. His name is Alek Skarlatos and he is a former US Army National Guard soldier who, along with fellow Americans Spencer Stone and Anthony Sadler, stopped a terrorist gunman from attacking a French train in August 2015. Skarlatos received international attention for the feat and was awarded France’s highest decoration, Knights of the Legion of Honour (Chevaliers de la Légion d’honneur) for his heroism.

In this age of domestic terrorism in our American cities, believes that Skarlatos will win the seat as his candidacy contrasts starkly to the riots in Portland and nearby Seattle, and the permissive Democrats who are allowing them.

Update: With colleges locked down or in a hibernation mode, left-wing activists will not be able to agitate students to vote Democrat as usual in Corvallis and Eugene. This is good for Republicans nationwide, and for Skarlatos.

Update: While originally wrote this essay about Alek Skarlatos in August, and cut-and-pasted it on October 26, here is an October 17 update about the race from Fox News confirming my thesis that Skarlatos can win.

*Here is Ballotpedia reporting on a Michigan congressional race that looks like a good ‘flip’:

Incumbent Elissa Slotkin (D), Paul Junge (R), and Joe Hartman (L) are running in the November 3, 2020, general election to represent Michigan’s 8th Congressional District. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) have both added this race to their election target lists.

Slotkin was first elected in 2018 after defeating incumbent Rep. Mike Bishop with a 3.8% margin of victory in favor of the Democratic candidate, a shift from 2016 and 2014 when the Republican candidate won by margins of 16.9% and 12.5%, respectively.

The 8th District is one of 31 U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election and a Democratic candidate won in the 2018 midterm elections. During the presidential election, Trump received 51% of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s (D) 44% in the 8th District.[1]

Michigan’s 8th Congressional District is located in the mid region of the lower peninsula of Michigan. It includes Livingston and Ingham counties and sections of Oakland County.

Notice that this was a strong Republican district that Trump won in 2016. predicts Junge will win.

Here is another almost guaranteed ‘flip’ from Ballotpedia:

Incumbent Lucy McBath (D) and Karen Handel (R) are running in the general election on November 3, 2020, to represent Georgia’s 6th Congressional District. The election is one of 56 U.S. House rematches from 2018. McBath was first elected that year after defeating then-incumbent Handel.

From 2012 to 2018, margins of victory in the 6th District trended from 29.0 percentage points in favor of the Republican candidate to 1.0 percentage point in favor of the Democratic candidate. The Republican candidate won election to the 6th District by at least 20 percentage points from 2012 to 2016. Handel was elected in a 2017 special election, which at the time was the most expensive U.S. House race in history, defeating Jon Ossoff (D) by a margin of 3.6%.[1] In 2018, McBath defeated Handel by 3,264 votes, 50.5% to 49.5%.

The 6th District is one of 31 U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election and a Democratic candidate won in the 2018 midterm elections.

Here is a likely ‘flip’ in Pennsylvania in a Trump district. This is from Ballotpedia:

Incumbent Rep. Conor Lamb (D) and Sean Parnell (R) are running in the general election for Pennsylvania’s 17th Congressional District on November 3, 2020.

Lamb was first elected in the March 13, 2018, special election to fill the remainder of Tim Murphy’s (R) term in the 18th Congressional District. Lamb defeated Rick Saccone (R) 49.9% to 49.5%. Following court-ordered redistricting in 2018, Lamb was elected to the 17th District, defeating Keith Rothfus (R) 56.3% to 43.7%.

This will be Parnell’s first campaign for elected office. Prior to his campaign, he was an author and contributor on Fox News.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the district 49% to 47%, making it one of … Democratic-held U.S. House districts up in 2020 that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election. Among these districts, Lamb’s margin of victory was the fourth highest. In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) defeated Barack Obama (D) 52% to 47% in Pennsylvania’s 17th.

Here is one more in a Trump district in Nevada. Dan Rodimer is an attorney and retired professional wrestler and a very personable, energetic guy. Ballotpedia reports:

Incumbent Susie Lee, Daniel Rodimer, Edward Bridges II, and Steven Brown are running in the general election for U.S. House Nevada District 3 on November 3, 2020.

The 3rd District is one of 31 U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election and a Democratic candidate won in the 2018 midterm elections. Incumbent Rep. Susie Lee (D), first elected in 2018, is running for re-election. She defeated Danny Tarkanian (R) in 2018, receiving 52 percent of the vote to Tarkanian’s 43 percent, a nine-point margin of victory. In 2016, Trump defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 3rd District, receiving 48 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 47 percent.

Lee already is involved in a corruption scandal. Rodimer’s campaign reports:

US Representative for Nevada’s 3rd District, Susie Lee (D), is not at all about Nevada. Instead, she is all about herself and her own wealth. She proved that once and for all recently, when she took advantage of the national emergency caused by Covid-19.

Susie Lee took full advantage of the national health emergency, and the government handouts. She lobbied to loosen federal regulations, resulting in Full House Resorts, a company in which Rep. Lee and her husband own millions of dollars in stock and options, receiving $5.6 million dollars in PPP.

Specifically, Rep. Lee asked the Small Business Administration (SBA) to expand loan eligibility during the health emergency, in such a way that would benefit her husband’s business interests. Just weeks later, it did just that. This is a glaring conflict of interest since that money would clearly be to Rep. Lee’s benefit. To compound the obvious ethical issues surrounding Rep. Lee’s conduct, the money went to support businesses outside the state she represents. In other words, she didn’t even keep the money in Nevada.

And as if that was not enough to prove her character, she then lied about what she did. When asked by reporters, she denied any knowledge or involvement with the loan application. Subsequently, however, she admitted that she was aware of the application, but, she said, only after the SBA made the change she had requested.

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