Political prognosticators estimate that 2% to 8% of voters are undecided about the presidential election. Roughly speaking this amounts to 2.5 million to 12 million votes or possibly more depending on the final voter turnout. And that’s a pretty darned big gap.
A total of 136 million voters cast a ballot in the 2016 presidential election. With early voting numbers smashing records this year, there is conjecture that 2020 may beat 2016 by millions. But that is not necessarily true since voter turnout on election day itself may be historically small.
In Florida, early voters swung strongly Republican, sending Democrats into a panic. Politico.com reported:
Florida Republicans are pouring out of the trenches.
After weeks of Democrats outvoting them by mail, Republican voters stormed early voting precincts in person this week, taking large bites out of their opponents’ historic lead in pre-Election Day ballots.
This happened because Republicans are intentionally not voting by mail. They have vowed to vote in person, either early or at the polls on election day. The reason is simple. Mail-in ballots are not reliable and are turning out to be a bust for Democrats.
Mail-in ballots are getting lost, trashed, thrown out and rejected. Black mail-in ballots reportedly are being rejected at 2 to 4 times the rate of white ballots for being improperly filled out. Meanwhile four crucial states – Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan – reported a huge number of mail-in ballots outstanding (not sent in). This is good news for president Trump since these ballots are overwhelmingly Democrat.
Will undecided voters decide the election? Or is the election already decided?
There is no way to know. But if millions of voters are undecided about president Trump this late in the game, then that is good news for him. After all, the media onslaught against Trump since he announced his candidacy in June 2015 has been unrelenting. So if there are still, say, 8 million undecided voters then that shows that the media are having less and less influence on Americans.
Nikitas3.com has consistently said that Trump is going to win. I recently listed 30 reasons why. And the only reason that Americans in general still think that Biden can win is that the rigged Fake News media polls always show Trump losing.
These media polls always manage to ignore all of the issues that are going in Trump’s favor, which Nikitas3.com listed in this recent commentary.
These are not opinions or polls. These are facts, such as that Biden looks frail and weak, that Trump voter enthusiasm is higher than it has ever been in US history, and that the Summer 2020 riots pushed frightened voters toward law-and-order Trump.
Among undecided voters, we might expect them to split 50-50 for the candidates. But Nikitas3.com believes that they will vote largely for Trump for three reasons:
*In an in-person focus group – which is going to be vastly more accurate than a phone poll – pollster Frank Luntz found that 7 out of 8 undecided voters said that they would vote for Trump after seeing his sterling October 22 debate performance. This comports with the general perception that Trump trounced Biden in the debate as 63 million Americans watched. That debate was a huge boost for Trump among undecided voters. They often rely on single events like the debate to confirm their votes.
*Undecided voters are by nature going to tilt toward the incumbent president as a default.
*The recent news that showed a stunning 33.1% growth rate in the economy comes just a few days before the election. This figure is reassuring to voters that Trump is the candidate to improve the economy, which is the #1 issue in most elections. This was another event that would confirm votes for Trump among undecideds.
Nikitas3.com noticed a type of Trump voter suppression on my ballot in Massachusetts. Biden-Harris was listed first, and then two other candidates (Libertarian and Green party) and then Trump-Pence last. It was alphabetical.
Gee, I would think that the incumbent president would be listed first. But not in Massachusetts.
By the way, where are Hillary and Bill to campaign for Biden?
Answer: Nobody cares what they think. They are radioactive to Democrats. They are finished.
Have you noticed that there are zero liberals on CNN, MSNBC, NBC, etc., laughing at Trump like they all were laughing in 2016? That’s because they know that their polls showing Biden winning are fake.
Here are two of the many predictions of a Trump victory that the media are ignoring. Fox News reported:
Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a “91 percent” chance of winning in November.
Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his “Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”
By the way, the two elections that the Primary Model got wrong were both highly controversial for their closeness. Townhall.com then reported:
Again, David Chapman and PollWatch noted…
“Three times in history America has faced a pandemic, recession, and civil unrest during an election year. The incumbent party is 3-0 in those elections,” wrote Chapman “What about polls? Well, polls are predicting Trump’s win. The ABC poll shows Trump with a 19-point enthusiasm advantage.”
He noted that every candidate who held the edge in voter enthusiasm since 1988 has won the election.
During Amy Coney Barrett’s Supreme Court nomination hearing, we heard a lot about history and how it’s against the GOP in filling this SCOTUS vacancy left by the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Well, here’s some bad news for Biden. No one who served more than 15 years in the Senate has been elected president. Joe Biden has been there for nearly four decades.
It’s why Chapman added that by every historic metric and trend, Trump is the one on the path to winning this election. Take a look and read for yourself. There’s some good stuff here.
Here is another Nikitas3.com from October 24 showing why Trump will win.