The United States Senate in Washington, DC currently has 53 Democrats, two independents and 45 Republicans. The independents are liberals and virtually always vote Democrat and are considered Democrats for the purpose of counting Senate power.
In the coming midterm election this November, in which the party in the White House traditionally loses congressional seats, the possibilities of the Senate going to 51 Republicans or more and majority GOP control are considered very good due in large part to the disaster of Obamacare and the increasing disillusionment with Obama’s presidency.
This switch will happen in November 2014 if A) Republicans retain all of their seats (15) that are up for re-election in the 2014 cycle and B) Republicans win 6 seats or more from vulnerable Democrats out of the 21 Democrats up for re-election this year, or: C) any other combination of events that leads Republicans to 51 seats.
The competitive races are detailed further down. Meanwhile nationaljournal.com reports:
The 2014 Senate landscape continues to look challenging for Democrats. Republicans can take back the chamber after eight years of Democratic control with a net gain of six seats, and the seven seats most likely to flip are held by Democrats in states President Obama lost in 2012.
The most important change since we looked at the Senate map three months ago is the glut of outside spending, particularly against Democratic incumbents in the majority-making seats of North Carolina, Louisiana, and Alaska. The nonprofit, conservative group Americans for Prosperity has dumped tens of millions into those states, beating up (Democrat) incumbents who now have–at best–50/50 chances of retaining their seats.
Republicans are well positioned to win a Senate majority in 2014. A favorable map, combined with a positive national (political) environment driven by disapproval of the (Obamacare) health care law, have put Democrats on the defensive. (end of nationaljournal.com excerpt)
Even the data whiz Nate Silver, who predicts events based on mathematical and statistical probability, says:
“We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats’ position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama’s approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions.
Silver is optimistic about GOP wins in West Virginia, South Dakota and Montana, red states where Democratic incumbents are retiring and where “we think the Republicans are poised to nominate equal or superior candidates in each state.”
Meanwhile foxnews.com reported:
Washington Republicans say they are now competitive in more than a dozen states this year in their quest to take control of the Senate, as they and outside supporters continue to highlight problems with ObamaCare and the Democratic incumbents who backed the law.
Kansas GOP Sen. Jerry Moran, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told reporters Friday his party has “strong credible candidates” in races in “10, 11, 12, 13 states.”
“The map and opportunities have expanded dramatically in a year, in part because of the consequences of the Affordable Care Act,” he said on a conference call that marked the fourth anniversary of (Obamacare). (end of foxnews.com excerpt)
Here is a rundown of the races that could fall from Democrat to Republican, with the first races the ones most likely to go to the GOP. And if there is a Republican rout as there was in November 2010 the GOP could go well beyond 51 seats.
*South Dakota, where Democrat Tim Johnson is retiring. This is a pretty conservative state and is expected to go Republican. Former Republican governor Mike Rounds is likely to win the GOP primary and the general election. It is important to remember that Johnson was first elected in 2002 under very suspicious circumstances, by a tiny number of votes after fraud was detected on heavily-Democrat Indian reservations. It was just another in a long line of Democrat fraud.
*West Virginia, where long-serving Democrat senator Jay Rockefeller is retiring. Republican congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito holds the advantage over Democrat secretary of state Natalie Tennant. The popular, well-known Capito is outraising her opponent and leading in polls. Barack Obama is deeply unpopular in West Virginia for his stance against coal mining. Normally Democrats have done well in West Virginia because of unionized miners. Not anymore.
*Montana, where long-serving Democrat Max Baucus is retiring. The race is on by Republicans against Democrat John Walsh, who was picked to replace Baucus after Baucus was confirmed as ambassador to China. Walsh is being criticized for a reprimand he received as an Army general. Montana Republican US congressman Steve Daines looks like a winner. Montana has generally been a Republican state but has changed with an influx of outsiders. It now has a Democrat governor and two Democrat US senators.
*Arkansas where Democrat US senator Mark Pryor is shown in polls slightly behind Republican US congressman Tom Cotton who outraised the two-term Democrat Pryor in the fourth quarter of 2013. Arkansas is a pretty conservative place. Cotton is likely to win.
*North Carolina where Democrat incumbent US senator Kay Hagan has been targeted by the conservative group Americans for Prosperity. The GOP nominee is likely to be state House speaker Thom Tillis. North Carolina was a conservative state for centuries, until all of the liberal Yankees started moving in to take advantage of the prosperity brought about by conservative policies. But Hagan is a good shot to lose for her support of Obamacare and for a backlash against liberals and Obama.
*Louisiana will be a political test for incumbent US senator Democrat Mary Landrieu. This is a conservative state but Landrieu is from an old Southern Democrat dynasty. She is being targeted by outside conservative groups. The GOP front-runner, US congressman Bill Cassidy, could easily pick up this seat although conservative 32-year Air Force veteran Rob Maness is surging against Cassidy in the primary and could be the next US senator from Louisiana.
*In Alaska Democrat incumbent US senator Mark Begich faces a tough re-election fight in a very Republican state. Former GOP Alaska attorney general Dan Sullivan had done well raising money and faces lieutenant governor Mead Treadwell and 2010 US Senate nominee Joe Miller in the GOP primary. It is significant to remember that Begich also won his seat in November 2008 by fraud. Incumbent Republican US senator Ted Stevens was indicted on campaign charges in the Summer of 2008. Stevens lost the election by a whisker because most did not believe the charges. Then the charges were dropped after the election for being very dubious legally. This was just another stolen election by the Democrats.
*In Michigan long-serving Democrat US senator Sen. Carl Levin is retiring. Michigan hasn’t elected a Republican US senator since 1994 but it did elect a very effective and very conservative Republican governor in 2010 which could affect this year’s contest. Auto unions will help the Democrat but the Obamacare law is going to work against any Democrat. Congressman Gary Peters is probably going to be the Democrat choice while Republican Terri Lynn Land has raised plenty of money, including $1.6 million from her own funds.
*In Colorado, sitting Democrat US senator Mark Udall is considered vulnerable. Colorado has been drifting Democrat in recent years with an influx of outsiders from both the liberal East and West coasts. Nikitas3.com has called Colorado “the new California”, i.e., full of Democrat radicals who do things like legalizing marijuana. Now GOP US congressman Cory Gardner has jumped into the race. While Udall has lots of money, Gardner believes that he can win not only on the subject of Obamacare, but also on Obama’s slumping image and on marijuana legalization, which has caused upheaval in Colorado.
*In Iowa, long-serving Democrat US senator Tom Harkin is retiring. The GOP field is crowded. Meanwhile Democrat US congressman Bruce Braley is considered the likely nominee. Braley recent was caught on camera talking condescendingly about farmers which may hurt him. Iowa is another state where Obama’s popularity has fallen sharply, and it could be competitive if Republicans end up with a strong nominee. You might think of Iowa as a conservative “heartland” state, but it has major population centers with universities and labor unions that are very liberal, along with thousands of farmers who are being bought off with federal subsidies from the Democrats to raise corn for ethanol (alcohol fuel) production.
*In Virginia, incumbent Democrat US senator Mark Warner is a multimillionaire businessman who is relatively popular in this increasingly “purple” state. Virginia has drifted away from its conservative roots through an influx of refugees from failed Northeast socialism who bring their failed liberal politics with them. Hundreds of thousands of well-to-do federal workers from Washington, DC also populate northern Virginia and vote strongly Democrat, along with the blacks of Virginia. The Republican candidate is likely to be former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie who could challenge Warner strongly.
*In Minnesota sitting Democrat US senator Al Franken is ultra-liberal and considered popular in this Midwestern state known for its liberal leanings (Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale). The likely Republican Mike McFadden continues to raise cash ($1.7 million) for the race but the GOP field remains crowded. It is significant to remember that Franken also first won his seat under highly suspicious circumstances. When the 2008 contest with incumbent Republican Norm Coleman appeared to be a dead heat after the ballots were counted on election day hundreds of Franken ballots magically “turned up” in a strongly Franken area, a classic form of Democrat voter fraud.
*In New Hampshire Democrat incumbent US senator Jeanne Shaheen was first elected in 2008. New Hampshire was a conservative state for two centuries but then the favorable economic climate created by conservative policies attracted political refugees from corrupt, Democrat-controlled Massachusetts who brought their liberal politics with them, making the state much more liberal. Republican US senator Kelly Ayotte, however, was elected in the Republican landslide of 2010. Now Scott Brown, the superstar Republican US senator who won the ‘Kennedy seat’ in a special election in Massachusetts in 2010 but lost his bid for a full term in 2012, has moved to New Hampshire to be near his ailing mother. He may run against Shaheeen and he could depose her. But word has it that Brown may be thinking more about a White House run in 2016 than the US Senate in 2014.
(Update: Brown is running in New Hampshire! And he is not afraid to go after Shaheen as a pure Obama partisan. Go Scott!)
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